Electric cars are still to become a phenomenon. While they are obviously clean in terms of environmental pollution, they are still far more expensive as compared to regular cars. That is why,use of electric vehicles is still limited. However, the CEO of Tesla Motors, Elon Musk, claims that within two decades, this is going to change radically.
Musk has a very impressive record. He was part of Paypal in the past and today is the CEO of Tesla Motors as well as SpaceX. Musk recently made a rather optimistic statement – by 2032, half of the cars built will be plug-in electric cars. This is being termed optimistic because currently, a very tiny percentage of cars are electric.
Musk’s optimism has been met with skepticism by nearly all industry analysts. These analysts think that to gain such a goal, the production of electric cars will have to advance at a very rapid pace, something which doesn’t seem to be happening.
This is manifested in the industry statistics. Currently, 60 to 80 million vehicles are built a year. However, out of this 60 to 80 million, a mere 100,000 are plug-in electric cars. So for now, the whole phenomenon of electric cars has a back-seat. And, industry analysts are not very optimistic that the scenario will change in the next 20 years or so.
However, Musk disagrees. “In 20 years, more than half of new cars manufactured will be fully electric. I feel actually quite safe in that bet.; that’s a bet I will put money on. … It’s probably going to be in the 12-yaer to 15-year time frame”, he added.
Industry experts are not not convinced though. In fact, so skeptical is the industry of his optimism that Pike Research analyst Dave Hurst is ready to take the wager and bet with Musk over this. Pike did a detailed analysis showing why Musk’s prediction will turn out to be wrong by 2032. Hurst’s estimates are based on solid research for which Pike is well known. The projected estimates from Pike divulge that the US plug-in market is expected to grow at 32% at most. But, maintaining a growth rate of 32% for years is unrealistic. According to Pike Research’s forecast, electric cars will account for only 1/3rd of the overall vehicle industry on 2032.
For Musk to be right, a lot of things will have to change on the electric cars front. These involve the availability of a wider range of electric cars and better options for recharging these cars.
Courtesy: Pike Research/Green Car Reports
