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Cisco Visual Networking Index Forecast

Releasing its fifth annual Visual Networking Index Forecast, the networking giant forecast that global Internet traffic will reach 966 exabytes a year in just four years and one exabyte equals 1 million terabytes, 1 billion gigabytes, or about 250 million DVDs. Per month, global IP traffic will hit 80.5 exabytes by 2015, up from about 20.2 exabytes per month in 2010 and per second, traffic will hit 245 terabytes, the equivalent of about 62,500 DVDs. The increase alone in global traffic between 2014 and 2015 will be 200 exabytes………

 

Cisco announced the results of the annual Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Forecast, 2009-2014, which projects that global Internet traffic will increase more than fourfold to 767 exabytes, or more than 3/4 of a Zettabyte, by 2014. This amount is 100 exabytes higher than the projected level in 2013, or an increase the equivalent of 10 times all the traffic traversing Internet Protocol networks in 2008. The growth in traffic will continue to be dominated by video, exceeding 91% of global consumer IP traffic by 2014. Improvements in network bandwidth capacity and Internet speeds, along with the increasing popularity of HDTV and 3DTV, are key factors expecting to quadruple IP traffic from 2009 to 2014.David Meads, Cisco South Africa country General Manager, says: “Service providers are faced with evolving bandwidth and scalability requirements as residential, business and mobile consumers continue to demonstrate a healthy appetite for advanced video services across a variety of networks and devices. IP networks must be intelligent and flexible enough to support this tremendous variety of traffic growth. The Cisco VNI Forecast offers a global snapshot of video’s significance in our daily lives and signals the need for further network preparations to support the quadrupling of the Internet and the more than 1 billion online video users by 2014.”

 

Overview:

  • The Cisco VNI Forecast, which focuses on two primary user groups consumers and businesses was developed as an annual study to estimate global IP traffic growth and trends. Projections are based on Cisco analysis and modelling of traffic, usage, and device data from independent analyst sources. Cisco validates its forecast, inputs, and methodology with data provided by service providers worldwide.
  • To help network users better understand global IP traffic growth drivers and trends, Cisco updated several of its unique resources:
  • The VNI Forecast widget provides customised views of the growth of various network traffic types around the globe (revised for this 2009 – 2014 forecast period).
  • The VNI PC Pulse application for desktop and laptop computers helps consumers learn more about their individual impact on IP networks and compare their network usage with that of others around the world.
  • Middle East and Africa – regional highlights:
  • IP traffic in the Middle East and Africa will reach 1 exabyte per month by 2014 at a rate of 45%. Monthly Internet traffic in the Middle East and Africa will generate 182 million DVDs worth of traffic, or 727 petabytes per month.
  • The Middle East and Africa will have the strongest mobile data traffic growth of any region at 133% CAGR, followed by Asia Pacific at 119% and North America at 117%.
  • Business IP traffic will grow fastest in the Middle East and Africa.
  • Business IP traffic in the Middle East and Africa will grow at a CAGR of 30%, a faster pace than the global average of 21%. North America, Western and Central Europe, and Japan will have slower growth rates. In volume, North America will have the largest amount of business IP traffic in 2014 at 2.3 exabytes per month. Western Europe will be a close second to North America at 2.2 exabytes per month.

 

Research highlights:

  • Global IP traffic is expected to increase more than fourfold (4.3 times) from 2009 to 2014, reaching 63.9 exabytes per month in 2014, up from approximately 56 exabytes per month in 2013. This is equivalent to 766.8 exabytes per year – almost three-quarters of a zettabyte, by 2014.
  • The nearly 64 exabytes of global IP traffic per month projected for 2014 is equivalent to 16 billion DVDs; 21 trillion MP3s; or 399 quadrillion text messages.
  • Regional IP traffic trends
  • By 2014, the highest IP-traffic generating regions will be North America (19 exabytes per month), Asia Pacific (17.4 exabytes per month), Western Europe (16.2 exabytes per month) and Japan (4.3 exabytes per month).
  • The fastest growing IP-traffic regions for the forecast period (2009-2014) are Latin America (51% compound annual growth rate [CAGR], 7.9-fold growth), the Middle East and Africa (45% CAGR, 6.5-fold growth), and Central Europe (38% CAGR, 5.1-fold growth).
  • IP traffic in the Middle East and Africa will reach 1 exabyte per month by 2014 at a rate of 45%. Monthly Internet traffic in the Middle East and Africa will generate 182 million DVDs worth of traffic, or 727 petabytes per month.
  • Primary growth driver: video
  • By 2014, the sum of all forms of video (TV, VOD, Internet video, and peer-to-peer) will continue to exceed 91% of global consumer traffic.
  • Global Internet video traffic will surpass global peer-to-peer traffic by the end of 2010. For the first time in the last 10 years, peer-to-peer traffic will not be the largest Internet traffic type.
  • The global online video community will include more than 1 billion users by the end of 2010.
  • By 2014, it would take more than two years to watch the amount of video that will cross global IP networks every second; to watch all the video crossing the network that year would take 72 million years.
  • 3DTV and HD (advanced video)
  • Globally, advanced video traffic, including three-dimensional (3D) and high-definition TV (HDTV), is projected to increase 13 times between 2009 and 2014.
  • By 2014, 3D is expected to account for 4% of total Internet video traffic.
  • By 2014, 3D and HD video is forecast to comprise 42% of total consumer Internet video traffic.
  • Global file sharing traffic is projected to reach 11 exabytes per month in 2014, 22% CAGR from 2009-2014.
  • P2P will grow at a CAGR of 16%, while Web-based and other file sharing will grow at CAGR of 47% from 2009-2014.
  • By 2014, global P2P traffic will be 17% of global consumer Internet traffic, down from 36% in 2009.
  • Global business IP traffic is forecast to reach 7.7 exabytes per month in 2014, more than tripling from 2009-2014.
  • Business videoconferencing is projected grow tenfold over the forecast period, growing almost three times as fast as overall business IP traffic, at a CAGR of 57% from 2009-2014.
  • Web-based videoconferencing is the fastest growing sub-category, growing 180-fold from 2009-2014 (183% CAGR from 2009-2014).

The Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) PC Pulse application measures the amount and types of traffic that you generate from your PC (for example, Web browsing, video, e-mail, etc). The application also provides a new “IP DNA” abstract image that represents your personal usage preferences. You can compare your individual data against aggregate global statistics from other Cisco VNI PC Pulse users around the world to see how you rate.

 

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